What Will Happen the Day After Abu Mazen?
The question of who will succeed Abu Mazen has preoccupied Israel’s security and political systems for years. At 88 years old, Abu Mazen has served as President of the Palestinian Authority since 2005, with his term extended since December 2009 without a mandate or new elections. As a leader lacking widespread public support among his people, the absence of a clear successor poses a significant challenge in preparing for the post-Abu Mazen era.
This issue has gained particular prominence following the tragic events of October 7 and the onset of the war in Gaza. Amid discussions about the day after Hamas’ rule in Gaza collapses, the Palestinian Authority has emerged as a potential option for taking control of the Strip. However, history has shown that even at its peak strength, the Palestinian Authority failed to maintain control over Gaza, let alone in today’s reality, where Hamas enjoys widespread support in both Gaza and the West Bank.
In my view, transferring control of Gaza back to the Palestinian Authority would be a grave mistake, missing the opportunity to build a new civilian administrative mechanism focused on deradicalizing the population and creating a new reality in the Strip. Attempting to restore the PA’s authority would lead to significant uncertainty in the aftermath and could even result in Hamas controlling both the West Bank and Gaza.
On the international front, Israel must take the lead in shaping the narrative and not allow external actors to dictate its agenda. The Israeli government must present a clear, updated vision for the day after Hamas, avoiding reliance on outdated assumptions. This is a time for creative thinking, rooted in historical lessons, to forge new paths toward long-term stability and security.
I invite you to review the summary document from the conference “The Day After Abu Mazen: Challenges for Israel,” which includes insights and quotes from research institutes, ministers, and Knesset members who participated in the discussions.
